One really bad loss has changed everything for the Miami Dolphins.
Even to the computers.
The Dolphins, 7-5, had won six consecutive games. But after getting drilled at Baltimore, Miami now has only a 15 percent chance to make the NFL playoffs according to research by the web site fivethirtyeight.com.
The site still projects the Dolphins to finish with 9 wins and 7 losses (technically, 8.7 wins and 7.3 losses) based on 100,000 simulations. Of course, in that scenario, the Dolphins would most likely finish 2-2 down the stretch (wins against the Jets and Cardinals or Bills) and very likely fail to make the playoffs.
Last week, the odds were 35 percent.
The week before, it was 32 percent.
“I’m not even going to worry about it, because you hear that every year, and really everybody is usually wrong,” first-year coach Adam Gase said Monday. “That’s what it is. You play until somebody tells you don’t, you can’t play anymore. If you try to figure out all the scenarios … We were 1-4, everybody said our season was over. I’m pretty sure if everybody went to Vegas, put money on that, they’d be broke.”
The teams with the best percentage odds to make the playoffs according to fivethirtyeight are:
New England 99
Kansas City 98
New York Giants 65
Tampa Bay 55
Green Bay 22