Miami Dolphins playoff odds crash to 15 percent after 100,000 simulations

The Miami Dolphins Ted Ginn Jr Runs a return kick in the first quarter of the game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte North Carolina on November 19 2009. Photo by Hector Gabino/ El Nuevo Herald Staff

The last time the Miami Dolphins made the NFL playoffs? 2008. And Ted Ginn, Jr., was the Dolphins’ leading receiver with 790 yards. Photo by Hector Gabino/ El Nuevo Herald Staff

One really bad loss has changed everything for the Miami Dolphins.

Even to the computers.

The Dolphins, 7-5, had won six consecutive games. But after getting drilled at Baltimore, Miami now has only a 15 percent chance to make the NFL playoffs according to research by the web site fivethirtyeight.com.

The site still projects the Dolphins to finish with 9 wins and 7 losses (technically, 8.7 wins and 7.3 losses) based on 100,000 simulations. Of course, in that scenario, the Dolphins would most likely finish 2-2 down the stretch (wins against the Jets and Cardinals or Bills) and very likely fail to make the playoffs.

Last week, the odds were 35 percent.

The week before, it was 32 percent.

“I’m not even going to worry about it, because you hear that every year, and really everybody is usually wrong,” first-year coach Adam Gase said Monday. “That’s what it is. You play until somebody tells you don’t, you can’t play anymore. If you try to figure out all the scenarios … We were 1-4, everybody said our season was over. I’m pretty sure if everybody went to Vegas, put money on that, they’d be broke.”

The teams with the best percentage odds to make the playoffs according to fivethirtyeight are:

 AFC

New England 99

Kansas City 98

Oakland 98

Denver 70

Pittsburgh 67

Houston 52

Baltimore 39

Indianapolis 39

Miami 15

NFC

Dallas *Qualified

Seattle 99

Detroit 90

Atlanta 86

New York Giants 65

Tampa Bay 55

Washington 39

Minnesota 28

Green Bay 22

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