Miami Dolphins: 95 percent chance they make playoffs (if this happens)

Miami Dolphins’ Kenyan Drake runs with the ball at Buffalo on Sunday. It may sound crazy, but Drake was right. Miami is not eliminated just yet. (AP Photo/Rich Barnes)

When Kenyan Drake said after a loss at Buffalo on Sunday that he didn’t think the Miami Dolphins were eliminated from the playoffs yet, it turns out he wasn’t crazy.

Drake was on to something.

It’s still so very, very unlikely. But Miami does have something to play for on Christmas Eve in Kansas City.

According to the New York Times’ excellent NFL Playoff Simulator, there is a 95 percent chance the Miami Dolphins still make the NFL playoffs, at 8-8, if:

• Miami defeats Kansas City and Buffalo

• Tennessee loses to the LA Rams and Jacksonville

• Baltimore loses to Indianapolis and Cincinnati

Here is some more not-dead-just-yet information from the web site:

• There is currently a 4 percent chance the Dolphins make the playoffs.

• If Miami wins at Kansas City, the odds increase to 10 percent.

• If Miami wins at Kansas City and home to Buffalo, the odds increase to 22 percent.

• If Miami wins at Kansas City and home to Buffalo, and on Saturday, Indy beats Baltimore, the odds increase to 24 percent.

• If Miami wins at Kansas City and Tennessee and Baltimore lose this week, the odds increase to 39 percent.

• If Miami wins twice and Baltimore loses twice, the odds increase to 51 percent.

• If Miami wins twice and Tennessee loses twice, the odds increase to 45 percent.

A key here are this: Adam Gase can stand in front of his team this week and say, without misleading anybody, it may seem unlikely, but if we win out, there is a chance we can still actually get into the playoffs.

And that’s good for Gase as he tries to motivate a team crushed after a heartbreaking loss at Buffalo.

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